Future climate data

using SimpleSDMLayers
using Plots
using Statistics

Justification for this use case: we will often want to forecast the range of species under a variety of climate change scenarios. For this reason, SimpleSDMLayers offers access to CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios or models, to be used in these situations.

For some data providers and datasets, SimpleSDMLayers offers access to future climate data. Future climates are usually specified by a model, and a scenario. For example, WorldClim 2.1 offers the full suite of BioClim variable under four SSPs and a number of CMIP6 models.

We can use this to look at, for example, the temperature difference between the current and future climate. To illustrate this, we will do a simple example where we contrast the "historical" climate (i.e. what is assumed to be the current data) to the projected data under SSP585 in the 2041-2060 period.

We will start by getting the contemporary data:

boundaries = (left=-169.0, right=-50.0, bottom=24.0, top=71.0)
baseline = SimpleSDMPredictor(WorldClim, BioClim, 1; boundaries...)
contour(baseline; c=:cork, frame=:box, fill=true, clim=(-30, 30), levels=6)